1. Create a Theory of Change
2. Assess Need
Are you confident your program is solving an important problem?
I have consulted with members of the community to understand the extent and urgency of the problem. I have taken their inputs on what might solve this problem, and identified who can benefit the most from my program.
I need more information to be confident that my program is solving an important problem for the community.
3. Review Evidence
Is your program design informed by existing evidence?
I know which programs have tried to address similar problems before. I’ve designed my program based on evidence of what has and has not worked in the past.
I may have heard of similar programs, but haven’t done a thorough review to ensure I’ve incorporated those lessons into my program design.
4. Assess Implementation
Are you confident you can deliver your program the way you’ve planned?
I am confident all the major steps in my theory of change are likely to hold. I also know which parts of my program are tricky to get right and need additional oversight.
I am unsure whether parts of my theory of change hold. There may also be room to improve implementation – I need to identify where the gaps are and what changes I need to make.
5. Monitor Performance
Is your program running smoothly?
Yes, I know my program is running smoothly – because we already have a monitoring system we’re happy with!
My program is not running smoothly. I need to identify where the implementation issues are coming from.
I don’t have information on whether my program is running smoothly.
6. Measure Impact
If you’ve answered the preceding questions, it looks like you have a program that responds to local needs, is well-conceptualized, and runs smoothly – congratulations! All this means that your program takes evidence seriously and that you are maximizing the likelihood your program will be successful.
The Question now is: Do you need an Impact Evaluation?
The Answer: It depends on the use case and audience for the evidence
But what is Impact Evaluation?
Let’s first define what we mean by impact evaluation:
Impact evaluations allow you to conclude with reasonable confidence that your program caused the outcomes you are seeing. They tell you how big of an effect your program is having.
Organizations conduct impact evaluations for a variety of reasons: to choose between different versions of programs, to demonstrate impact to a funder, to make a decision on whether the program should be scaled. Your decision to conduct an impact evaluation should be informed by the decisions that will follow – and whom you need to convince. For example, you may decide that the results from your monitoring system results are adequate for you to scale your program from one village to five. Later on, though, you may decide to conduct a rigorous impact evaluation, so you can decide whether your program should be scaled to other districts – and you’ll also need this evidence to raise funds to do so!
If you are highly skeptical that your program is changing outcomes in its current form, it is probably not the right time to conduct an impact evaluation. Otherwise, the impact evaluation will just be an expensive exercise to prove what you already suspect – that the program isn’t working in its current form.
7. I've already done an impact evaluation!
I’ve already done an impact evaluation – and it shows my program has impact!
